Why are we Investing so Heavily in “Renewable Energy?”

A Question for Australian Governments.

This article was born from my curiosity. I wanted to understand our investment in renewable energy.

For more than 10 years now, Australia has been investing heavily in the construction of Solar Farms and Wind Farms, decommissioning Coal-fired Power Stations, Updating the Energy Grid to incorporate the new assets and investing in Battery storage to “smooth out” the reliability of energy supply.

All of this has been done in line with the Net Zero Targets set some years ago. This means that Australia is aiming to reduce its contributions to atmospheric carbon to zero. This means, what we take out of the atmosphere is at least equal to what we put into it.

That is an admirable intention. But I wonder how many of us have lifted the hood to take a closer look.

Here are some basic pieces of data:

Table 1: Amount of Carbon in Gigatons

In Earth’s Atmosphere 850

In Earth’s Soils 3,000

In Flora and Fauna (Plants, People and Animals) 600

In Fossil Fuel Deposits (Coal, Oil and Gas) 8,000

Every year, the use of fossil fuels in Australia adds about 115 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere. This is the equivalent of about 0.115 gigatons, or an increase in global atmosphere carbon of about 14 ten thousandth of a percent.

So, our Governments believe that reducing these carbon levels to net zero will have a positive impact on global warming, well, climate change as it now seems to be called.

I am curious about all of this so I dived into the Australian Bureau of Statistics and also got some help from Chat GPT to explore the issue further.

What Does it Cost to Switch to Renewable Energy Sources?

I was quite taken by this exploration. Capital expenditures include Wind Farms, Solar Farms, decommissioning of Coal-fired Power Stations, Batteries to smooth out the power demand on the grid (which clearly has not been working well in Europe i.e. Spain and Germany), and structural updates to the grid to bring the new assets into play.

I went back 10 years and gathered data and then averaged it out over the past 10 years. Here is what I found.

Table 2: Expenditure on Renewable Energy Assets and related costs.

Item Annual Approx Cost Total Cost -

Over10 Years

Exp on Wind Farms in last 10 years $2,000,000,000.00 $20,000,000,000.00

Exp on Solar Farms in last 10 years $2,500,000,000.00 $25,000,000,000.00

Exp on Batteries for Last 10 Years $ 800,000,000.00 $8,000,000,000.00

Exp on Energy Grid Updates $2,000,000,000.00 $20,000,000,000.00

Exp on Decommissioning Coal Plants $ 300,000,000.00 $3,000,000,000.00

Total Exp on Renewable Energy Assets $7,600,000,000.00 $76,000,000,000.00

76 Billion dollars is a lot of money in anyone’s world. But we should add some figures to this.

First, Wind Turbines have a lifespan of approximately 25 years and have a replacement cost of between $8 and $16 million dollars, depending on the size and power output. Annual maintenance costs per turbine are around $200,000 per year. There are about 3,200 turbines operating in Australia t present. This means an annual maintenance cost of approximately $640 million dollars per annum, with a replacement cost capital allocation of about $1.5 billion per annum. This means an ongoing annual cost of $2.1 billion just for wind turbines.

Solar Panels on the other hand, also have a life expectancy of 25 years and would cost approximately $10 Billion to replace. Annual maintenance costs for the entirety of Australia’s large scale Solar Panel installations comes to about $220 million per annum. Over the life of the panels, this is a cumulative cost of $5.5 Billion. If we spread this over the 25 years, the annual allocated cost will be $1.55 Billion.

So, on top of the $76 billion to build our current assets and bring them online, we have an annual bill of well over $4 billion to maintain and future fund replacements.

All of this to stop us pumping 115 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere.

What would happen if we had gone down a completely different path?

A Different Approach to Agriculture

No-Till, Regenerative Agriculture:

In Australia, we have about 462 million acres of farmland, spread over about 85,000 farms, with an average farm size of 5,440 acres.

Many farms are used for cattle grazing. Some are used for more general crop growth and some for specialized crops. Breaking down the soil, either by constant foot traffic from cows, which disrupts the development of the grasses deep root systems which is critical to the overall health of the soil, or ploughing the soil, releases carbon into the atmosphere.

This soil disruption releases about 10.5 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere annually, about one tenth of the amount attributed to burning fossil fuels.

The cropping farms also use a large volume of pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers that are derived from petroleum products. About 5-6% of oil and natural gas used in this country are in the production of these products.

With modern equipment, ploughing is no longer necessary. No-till farming drives the seed directly into the ground. About 10 to 15% of Australian farms are already using this method. Of course, to be able to do this, new equipment investment is required.

New methods of grazing management also reduce the breakdown of soil which minimizes carbon loss.

Carbon Sequestration:

Planting of crops can be done differently to increase the carbon uptake by the soil. Regenerative Farming like cover cropping, diverse rotations, and improved grazing can drastically change the way soil is managed, reviving the life of the soil and re-building the sensitive microbiome. This all leads to a significant increase in the carbon uptake by the soil via the plants and the microbiome. It is a flawless system once established.

We did the calculations with the available data and realised that if all Australian farms moved to regenerative agriculture, carbon sequestration would amount to about 95 million tons per annum.

If we combine this with 10.t million tons saved by no-till planting, the total carbon saving would be 105 million tons, slightly less than the 115 million tons created by burning fossil fuels.

What is the cost?

What would be the cost of converting the entire Australian Farming Community to No-till Regenerative Agriculture? We did the exploration and produced some incredible numbers.

First, each farm will need new equipment (like planting machinery), training and support. These things cost money.

We estimated the following costs, based on data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Industry specific sites.

Table 3: Start out costs

New Equipment (average per farm) $125,000:00

Soil testing ($20 per acre) – Average per cropping farm $108,800:00

Training and Consulting $ 10,000:00

Total Start up Cost per farm - approx $245,000:00

Total Cost if Born by Government, to convert all Australian Farms:

85,000 farms, less the 15% already transitioned. That is 72,250 farms

72,250 x $245,000 is a total investment of $17.7 Billon Dollars. That is a one off investment item.

We must also look at the fact farmers spend a lot of money each year on Herbicides, Pesticides and Fertilizers. Most of these ill no longer be needed.

Table 4: Ongoing Running Costs of Farms:

Seeds etc for Cover Crops ($20 per acre) $101,800:00

Ongoing Training and Support $ 1,500:00

Total Annual Spend $103,300:00

Less Savings on previous, no longer needed items:

Fertilizers ($20 per acre) $108,800:00

Herbicides and Pesticides ($10 pa) $ 54,400:00

Total $163,300:00

Total Positive Shift in Costs - Total Saving $ 60,000:00

The Other Benefits of No-Till Regenerative Agriculture:

If Australia moved exclusively to this type of agriculture, a number of things would happen. First, within 10 years, most Australian Produce would qualify as Certifiably Organic.

Australia could become the Organic Food Bowl of the world, making our produce incredibly attractive to export markets.

The health of the nation would also improve markedly as the nutrition quality of our food improves and the chemicals are removed. This alone has almost unfathomable potential.

These things lead to lower healthcare costs, greatly reduced degenerative disease, lower prescription drug use and healthier, happy children.

Table 5: Let’s Do a Comparison:

Item: Renewables Agriculture Reform

Initial Capital cost $76 Billion $17.5 Billion

Ongoing Capital Cost $4 Billion Nil

Net Carbon Emission Reduction 115 Million Tons 105 Million Tons

So, my final questions for you are these.

What in hell are we doing?

Whose plan is this?

Where does the money trail lead?

Why didn’t you or anyone else get more curious?

Have we been so caught up in our “Climate Change” chant that we forgot to take a look at what is right in front of us?

I believe we do not need all those ugly windmills. As a nation, we either went off half-cocked, or we were hoodwinked. What do you believe.

And to add a little salt to the wound, whilst we stand around congratulating ourselves for how environmentally responsible we all are, the Amazon Rain Forest is being logged like it never has been before. This reminds me of magicians. You must watch both hands.